ETC retreat of 15% possible after outstanding quarter

  • Ethereum Classic price vaults 92% since the June 22 low, overcoming the stiff resistance of the 2018 high at $47.00.
  • ETC tags the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $63.15 after yesterday’s explosive 30% gain.
  • May’s declining trend line proved to be a minor obstacle during the steep advance.

Ethereum Classic price has overcome several technical barriers during the 92% march higher, putting the digital asset in a superior position to achieve higher prices over the medium term. In the short term, ETC may see some selling pressure, but it should be limited by the resistance levels that have been reclaimed.

Ethereum Classic price greets the summer with a new attitude

Based on the current Ethereum Classic price of $58.85, ETC is on pace to close the quarter up over 300%. The quarterly performance stands in stark contrast to other altcoins. For example, Ethereum has a gain of 12%, Ripple 20%, Cardano 12% and Polygon 200%. Dogecoin stands out with a 365% gain. 

However, Bitcoin shows a quarterly loss of -40%, Stellar -30%, Litecoin -30% and VeChain -2%.

Crucial to the tremendous quarterly performance is the recent spike higher as Ethereum Classic price overcame the resistance of the May declining trend line, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-May advance at $43.30, the May 2018 high of $47.00 and the anchored VWAP from March 29 at $55.39. The advance has now placed ETC in a direct standoff with the 50-day SMA at $63.15.

Due to the magnitude and limited duration of the ETC move, Ethereum Classic price will likely experience some profit-taking in the coming days. The depth of the decline should be limited by the resounding support offered by the anchored VWAP at $55.39, a level that was a robust guide in mid-June before the quick 35% dive. 

If selling begins to accelerate in the cryptocurrency complex, the scenario of a mild ETC pullback may evolve to a test of the 2018 high at $47.00, representing a -16% decline from the current Ethereum Classic price.

Thus, in the short term, it is anticipated that Ethereum Classic price will experience a mild pullback that will be contained between the anchored VWAP and 2018 high.

ETC/USD daily chart

If Ethereum Classic price closes below the 2018 high during the pullback, it will prompt ETC to fall to May’s declining trend line at $42.30. It would be a setback for the bullish narrative and suggest that the rally may be a one-off event rather than the beginning of a new, sustainable uptrend for the altcoin.

Any bearish momentum below the trend line could include a sweep of the June 22 low of $32.53 and a test of the 200-day SMA at $30.03.